If you are wondering just what Simpson's Paradox is, the column I wrote for the Daily Kent Stater will step you through one example in detail.
All data comes from the Kent State Athletics' web pages. The season box scores list the data for total field goals and three-pointers. Subtract to find the numbers for two-pointers. Instances of Simpson's Paradox in the field goal shooting percentages appear to be rather common. I have been able to find at least one in each data set I've checked. I've included just a few examples here. The interested reader should pull out her calculator and look for more for herself!
| Kent State Men's Basketball: 2000-2001 Conference Games Only (18 games) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|   | Trevor Huffman | Bryan Bedford | ||||
|   | Made | Attempted | Average | Made | Attempted | Average |
| Two-pointers | 57 | 127 | 0.449 | 13 | 30 | 0.433 |
| Three-pointers | 35 | 100 | 0.350 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| All field goals | 92 | 227 | 0.405 | 13 | 31 | 0.419 |
The Lurking Variable: The more difficult 3-pointers made up a much higher percentage of Huffman's attempts than Bedford's. Thus, when the two categories are combined for the field-goal shooting percentage, the harder shots are weighted more in Huffman's total than in Bedford's.
|   | Trevor Huffman | Bryan Bedford |
|---|---|---|
| Percentage of FG Attempts which are 3-Pointers |
44% | 3% |
| Kent State Women's Basketball: 2000-2001 All Games | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|   | Morgan O'Hara | Lisa Wube | ||||
|   | Made | Attempted | Average | Made | Attempted | Average |
| Two-pointers | 20 | 40 | 0.500 | 44 | 95 | 0.463 |
| Three-pointers | 8 | 32 | 0.250 | 3 | 19 | 0.158 |
| All field goals | 28 | 72 | 0.389 | 47 | 114 | 0.412 |
Here again, O'Hara attempted a higher percentage of three-pointers than did Wube.
|   | Morgan O'Hara | Lisa Wube |
|---|---|---|
| Percentage of FG Attempts which are 3-Pointers |
29% | 6% |
| Kent State Men's Basketball: 2001-2002 games through the MAC tournament | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|   | Andrew Mitchell | Demetric Shaw | ||||
|   | Made | Attempted | Average | Made | Attempted | Average |
| Two-pointers | 109 | 230 | 0.4739 | 63 | 134 | 0.4701 |
| Three-pointers | 61 | 159 | 0.3836 | 17 | 49 | 0.3469 |
| All field goals | 170 | 389 | 0.4370 | 80 | 183 | 0.4372 |
|   | Andrew Mitchell | Demetric Shaw |
|---|---|---|
| Percentage of FG Attempts which are 3-Pointers |
41% | 27% |
| Kent State Women's Basketball 2002-2003 All Games |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|   | Jamie Rubis | Lindsay Shearer | ||||
|   | Made | Attempts | Average | Made | Attempts | Average |
| Two-pointers | 119 | 234 | 0.509 | 86 | 170 | 0.506 |
| Three-pointers | 36 | 97 | 0.371 | 5 | 21 | 0.238 |
| All field goals | 155 | 331 | 0.468 | 91 | 191 | 0.476 |
|   | Jamie Rubis | Lindsay Shearer |
|---|---|---|
| Percentage of FG Attempts which are 3-Pointers |
29% | 11% |
| Kent State Men's Basketball: 2002-2003 Conference Games Only |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|   | Anthony Wilkins | Antonio Gates | ||||
|   | Made | Attempts | Average | Made | Attempts | Average |
| Two-pointers | 31 | 56 | 0.554 | 216 | 440 | 0.491 |
| Three-pointers | 67 | 171 | 0.392 | 15 | 43 | 0.349 |
| All field goals | 98 | 227 | 0.432 | 231 | 483 | 0.478 |
|   | Anthony Wilkins | Antonio Gates |
|---|---|---|
| Percentage of FG Attempts which are 3-Pointers |
75% | 9% |
This document is http://www.math.kent.edu/~darci/simpson/bballexamples.html by Darci L. Kracht ( dkracht@kent.edu).